Official Albums Chart on 7/5/2021

Bob Marley Legend will do it by the end of the year too. The top 4 are miles ahead of 5th place (3rd and 4th are Queen Greatest Hit and Rumours). I think 5th is Bat Out Of with about 500-odd weeks, although there are a few others coming close to overtaking it. What's The Story, MJ #1s and Curtain Call The Hits

In response to one of your other posts: there is definitely no ACR applied to the album chart. The 28 albums you mention have fallen down the chart because of new entries and some climbers, there's no other reason.

11 of those 28 albums actually have higher sales this week than they achieved last week, despite falling down the chart. 15 of them have had their sales drop by less than 5%, i.e. very little difference between last week and this week's sales. Only 2 had their sales decrease between 5 to 10%.

These 28 albums have fallen from 2 places to 14 places [the average fall is 6 places].

Looking at the largest faller: George Michael Twenty Five (45-59). There are 11 new entries higher than his album. George is now ahead of six albums that were higher than him last week. Nine albums that were lower than George last week are now ahead. 11 - 6 + 9 = 14. The same applies to the other 27 albums.

I think that proves what I said in the deleted comment, that they have reasonbly consistent sales week-on-week.

Thanks. For some reason, my comment has been deleted.I didn't do it! Which may explain why you can't reply to it. What I think matters more is not the amount of new entries, but where they are. There are more this week, but they are all also much higher. The 7 last week were really low. While I get your probability approach, I'm not sure it's the most appropriate. For example, if a race car in 10th place overtakes the 9 in front to take the lead, each one of those 9 down a place (like a new entry at #1). And all will average going down one place, because if one is a non-mover, it has both overtaken a car in front but been overtaken by the former 10th place car. Another car will be going down 2 places: overtaken by the non-mover and the former 10th-place leader.

Now expand that idea to 10 records/cars overtaking in a race of 75 to take the top 10 positions, and you have this week's chart pattern. And of the lower chart that drop fewer places, or even non-move will do so at the expense of another having a bigger drop to compensate. It's not like rolling a dice chance, but with known history and predictable sales. The older the album, the more history and known sales patterns. Like rolling a very LOADED dice!

But as you say, and I discovered after my original comment, the Brits will massively distort normal sales patterns, but there is still a degree of predictability:
All the long runners will go down by the amount of albums by Brits performers that are below them this week.

Probably something to do with the 9 new entries in the top 11. ;)

Statistically, that's not enough for such a blanket effect. There are almost always many new entries above the majority of these long runners.

It is. The top 10 sell enough to knock the previous week's top 10 down roughly 10 places each. Below the top 20, especially below the top 40, differences between sales figures are tiny, so the lower down the chart, the less impact it has. 39 Albums have been on chart all year so far, who keep a steady mid-chart collection as the top runs like late 90's singles: Enter high and drop like a stone usually out of the top 100 within a month.

That doesn't explain why ALL 28 are going down. That's far too many for statistical probablility, The theories you and Philip King, put forward, while sounding sensible, would only be valid if we had the old bell-curve type chart runs of forty+ years ago. Today, however, the nine high new entries would affect the ones near the top, but should have less and less effect the further down the chart you go. It is statistically vanishingly unlikely, that not one of the 28 long runners on last week's chart had an upsurge in sales this week, enough to mover them even slightly up the chart. I believe a new rule has been brought in, or an old one has been amended, something similar to ACR, but not so drastic.

Some of what I commented previously won't apply:
Next week WON'T be a normal week because it's the Brits and all performers and probably most of the nominees will climb / be serious competition against the new releases. Billie Eilish already is (as last year's International winner).

It should be

Wass ACR.